Goal distributions for the eAdriatic League. Every match is a
distribution, not a scoreline — so the whole shape is published.
MODEL LIVE
100,135 matches trained
data to 2026-08-27 16:20 UTC
Rundown — next up
120 fixtures
Line
At least
KickoffMatchOur call
No fixture is that likely right now.
Lower the threshold or pick another line.
v
Most likely total—goalsexactly—or more—
Safe call—
Every line — find the one your bookmaker offers
Probability of each final total
Expected total
Goals each side is expected to score, and the two added together.
The lines above are what those rates imply once the spread of real scorelines is
taken into account.
Matches already played this session
Each fixture opens at the operators’ real position in their session.
Drag to override and the whole distribution moves — a first match of the day scores
far lower than a thirtieth, and that shift is fitted separately for every operator.
Scoring level, by month
Swings 0.85 goals across the year — five times larger than the gain from
knowing who is playing.
Warm-up, this fixture
Expected total against matches already played. The dot marks this fixture.
Calibration — held-out test
Predicted against observed on 15,486 unseen matches.
Common questions
How many goals are scored in an eAdriatic League match?
The league has averaged about 6.2 goals a match over the last year, but the level drifts: it ranged from 6.02 to 6.87 a match across eleven months. Each fixture on this page carries its own number.
What does 'over 5.5' mean?
Six goals or more. The half-goal exists so the bet cannot end in a tie — 5.5 is the line this league is most commonly offered at.
How do you decide what to recommend?
We take the highest line we still back at 60% or better. The most confident line is always the lowest one and pays almost nothing, so the highest line that still clears the bar is the one worth having.
Why is the recommendation lower than the goals you expect?
Because the most likely total is not a safe bet. The single most likely scoreline carries under a fifth of the probability, and 'that many or more' sits near a coin flip, so we drop a line to something we are confident about.
Are these predictions free?
Yes. Every number, the method and the full track record are public, and no odds are used anywhere in the model.