Results

Every prediction is written before kickoff and never edited afterwards. This is the scoreboard: what we said, what happened, and how often it landed.

69%Calls right

Calls that landed

1673 of 2413

matches we actually backed

Goals called exactly

16%

49% within one goal

Skipped

no line cleared 60%

Matches scored

2,413

last 10 days

Did the percentages hold up?

This is the honest test. If we say 60% on a line, it should happen about 60% of the time — not more, not less. Being close on both numbers matters more than winning calls.

OVER 2.5

3 goals or more

We said94%

Happened94%

OVER 3.5

4 goals or more

We said86%

Happened87%

OVER 4.5

5 goals or more

We said73%

Happened73%

OVER 5.5

6 goals or more

We said58%

Happened59%

OVER 6.5

7 goals or more

We said42%

Happened41%

OVER 7.5

8 goals or more

We said28%

Happened27%

OVER 8.5

9 goals or more

We said17%

Happened17%

The same rule, over 15,402 matches

The scoreboard above is live and still short. To check the rule itself we ran it across the whole validation window — every prediction made using only matches that had already kicked off, exactly as it works now.

Calls landed

69.1%

10,643 of 15,402

95% interval

68.4–69.8%

bootstrapped

We said

68.7%

+0.4 pp against outcome

Goals exact

17.1%

49% within one

60–65%

4,510 calls

We said62.5%

Landed63.1%

65–70%

4,404 calls

We said67.5%

Landed68.9%

70–80%

6,295 calls

We said73.4%

Landed73.2%

80–90%

189 calls

We said83.3%

Landed79.9%

Read this as an upper bound. Every prediction is genuinely out of sample — it only ever saw earlier matches — but the model’s settings were themselves chosen on this window, so a truly clean number would be a little lower. Window: 2026-05-19 to 2026-07-03.

Every match

Times in UTC.

2413 matches

Time	Match	Our call	Most likely	Scored	Result	Every line
16:20	Manchester Utd. v Newcastle U.Nathan v Lucas	Over 4.5 61% likely	5	5	Hit	7/7
16:15	Real Betis v BarcelonaNoah v Pascal	Over 7.5 65% likely	8	7	Miss	5/7
16:15	Sevilla v Athletic BilbaoKai v Logan	Over 3.5 72% likely	4	6	Hit	6/7
16:05	Arsenal v Aston VillaGeorge v Haidan	Over 5.5 64% likely	6	4	Miss	5/7
16:05	Tottenham v Newcastle U.Gael v Lucas	Over 4.5 62% likely	5	6	Hit	6/7
16:00	Real Betis v SevillaNoah v Kai	Over 4.5 75% likely	6	6	Hit	7/7
16:00	Real Madrid v Athletic BilbaoMisterX v Logan	Over 4.5 73% likely	6	6	Hit	7/7
15:45	Real Madrid v SevillaMisterX v Kai	Over 4.5 69% likely	5	10	Hit	4/7
15:45	Athletic Bilbao v BarcelonaLogan v Pascal	Over 5.5 68% likely	6	7	Hit	7/7
15:35	England v FranceLucas v Haidan	Over 4.5 74% likely	6	10	Hit	4/7
15:35	Germany v NorwayGael v Nathan	Over 4.5 75% likely	6	7	Hit	6/7
15:20	Spain v NorwayGeorge v Nathan	Over 4.5 67% likely	5	10	Hit	3/7
15:20	Germany v FranceGael v Haidan	Over 5.5 73% likely	7	6	Hit	6/7
15:15	Atletico Madrid v Manchester CityMisterX v Noah	Over 6.5 65% likely	7	6	Miss	6/7
15:15	Bayern M. v Real MadridKai v Pascal	Over 5.5 64% likely	6	8	Hit	5/7
15:05	France v NorwayHaidan v Nathan	Over 5.5 71% likely	7	6	Hit	6/7
15:05	Spain v EnglandGeorge v Lucas	Over 3.5 72% likely	4	7	Hit	5/7
15:00	PSG v Manchester CityLogan v Noah	Over 5.5 62% likely	6	5	Miss	6/7
15:00	Atletico Madrid v Real MadridMisterX v Pascal	Over 6.5 71% likely	8	10	Hit	6/7
14:50	England v NorwayLucas v Nathan	Over 4.5 61% likely	5	1	Miss	4/7
14:50	Spain v GermanyGeorge v Gael	Over 4.5 67% likely	5	11	Hit	3/7
14:45	Real Madrid v Manchester CityPascal v Noah	Over 7.5 64% likely	8	8	Hit	7/7
14:45	PSG v Bayern M.Logan v Kai	Over 3.5 72% likely	4	1	Miss	4/7
14:35	France v SpainHaidan v George	Over 5.5 63% likely	6	8	Hit	5/7
14:35	England v GermanyLucas v Gael	Over 4.5 61% likely	5	6	Hit	6/7
14:30	Bayern M. v Manchester CityKai v Noah	Over 4.5 74% likely	6	7	Hit	6/7
14:30	PSG v Atletico MadridLogan v MisterX	Over 4.5 73% likely	6	8	Hit	5/7
14:20	France v EnglandHaidan v Lucas	Over 4.5 73% likely	6	9	Hit	4/7
14:20	Norway v GermanyNathan v Gael	Over 4.5 74% likely	6	9	Hit	4/7
14:15	Bayern M. v Atletico MadridKai v MisterX	Over 4.5 68% likely	5	10	Hit	4/7
14:15	Real Madrid v PSGPascal v Logan	Over 5.5 69% likely	6	4	Miss	4/7
14:05	Norway v SpainNathan v George	Over 4.5 66% likely	5	5	Hit	7/7
14:05	France v GermanyHaidan v Gael	Over 5.5 70% likely	6	8	Hit	6/7
14:00	Manchester City v Atletico MadridNoah v MisterX	Over 6.5 64% likely	7	7	Hit	7/7
14:00	Real Madrid v Bayern M.Pascal v Kai	Over 5.5 64% likely	6	10	Hit	4/7
13:50	Norway v FranceNathan v Haidan	Over 5.5 71% likely	7	6	Hit	6/7
13:50	England v SpainLucas v George	Over 3.5 70% likely	4	6	Hit	6/7
13:45	Manchester City v PSGNoah v Logan	Over 5.5 62% likely	6	5	Miss	6/7
13:45	Real Madrid v Atletico MadridPascal v MisterX	Over 6.5 71% likely	8	8	Hit	7/7
13:35	Norway v EnglandNathan v Lucas	Over 4.5 61% likely	5	2	Miss	4/7
13:35	Germany v SpainGael v George	Over 4.5 62% likely	5	4	Miss	6/7
13:30	Manchester City v Real MadridNoah v Pascal	Over 7.5 63% likely	8	3	Miss	2/7
13:30	Bayern M. v PSGKai v Logan	Over 3.5 72% likely	4	6	Hit	6/7
13:20	Spain v FranceGeorge v Haidan	Over 4.5 75% likely	6	8	Hit	5/7
13:20	Germany v EnglandGael v Lucas	Over 3.5 74% likely	4	5	Hit	7/7
13:15	Manchester City v Bayern M.Noah v Kai	Over 4.5 72% likely	5	4	Miss	5/7
13:15	Atletico Madrid v PSGMisterX v Logan	Over 4.5 73% likely	6	5	Hit	6/7
13:00	Atletico Madrid v Bayern M.MisterX v Kai	Over 4.5 65% likely	5	6	Hit	6/7
13:00	PSG v Real MadridLogan v Pascal	Over 5.5 72% likely	7	13	Hit	5/7
12:50	Germany v SpainFlash v Leonardo	Over 4.5 72% likely	6	4	Miss	5/7
12:50	France v HollandMaverick v Bruno	Over 6.5 69% likely	7	6	Miss	5/7
12:35	Argentina v SpainGabriel v Leonardo	Over 5.5 62% likely	6	7	Hit	6/7
12:35	Germany v HollandFlash v Bruno	Over 5.5 60% likely	6	2	Miss	3/7
12:30	Liverpool v Manchester CityVanGogh v Beckham	Over 5.5 67% likely	6	6	Hit	6/7
12:30	Barcelona v Atletico MadridWilliam v Cezar	Over 5.5 63% likely	6	4	Miss	5/7
12:20	Holland v SpainBruno v Leonardo	Over 5.5 64% likely	6	2	Miss	3/7
12:20	Argentina v FranceGabriel v Maverick	Over 6.5 66% likely	7	6	Miss	5/7
12:15	Real Madrid v Manchester CityAlexander v Beckham	Over 5.5 61% likely	6	5	Miss	6/7
12:15	Liverpool v Atletico MadridVanGogh v Cezar	Over 5.5 73% likely	7	4	Miss	4/7
12:05	France v SpainMaverick v Leonardo	Over 6.5 63% likely	7	3	Miss	3/7
12:05	Argentina v GermanyGabriel v Flash	Over 4.5 72% likely	6	6	Hit	7/7
12:00	Atletico Madrid v Manchester CityCezar v Beckham	Over 5.5 69% likely	6	8	Hit	6/7
12:00	Real Madrid v BarcelonaAlexander v William	Over 4.5 72% likely	5	8	Hit	5/7
11:50	France v GermanyMaverick v Flash	Over 5.5 74% likely	7	6	Hit	6/7
11:50	Holland v ArgentinaBruno v Gabriel	Over 5.5 66% likely	6	3	Miss	3/7
11:45	Barcelona v Manchester CityWilliam v Beckham	Over 4.5 72% likely	6	3	Miss	4/7
11:45	Real Madrid v LiverpoolAlexander v VanGogh	Over 5.5 66% likely	6	6	Hit	7/7
11:35	Spain v GermanyLeonardo v Flash	Over 4.5 71% likely	5	2	Miss	3/7
11:35	Holland v FranceBruno v Maverick	Over 6.5 68% likely	7	7	Hit	6/7
11:30	Barcelona v LiverpoolWilliam v VanGogh	Over 5.5 60% likely	6	5	Miss	6/7
11:30	Atletico Madrid v Real MadridCezar v Alexander	Over 5.5 68% likely	6	9	Hit	5/7
11:20	Spain v ArgentinaLeonardo v Gabriel	Over 5.5 60% likely	6	6	Hit	7/7
11:20	Holland v GermanyBruno v Flash	Over 4.5 76% likely	6	6	Hit	7/7
11:15	Manchester City v LiverpoolBeckham v VanGogh	Over 5.5 67% likely	6	3	Miss	3/7
11:15	Atletico Madrid v BarcelonaCezar v William	Over 5.5 62% likely	6	10	Hit	4/7
11:05	Spain v HollandLeonardo v Bruno	Over 5.5 63% likely	6	4	Miss	5/7
11:05	France v ArgentinaMaverick v Gabriel	Over 6.5 65% likely	7	7	Hit	7/7
11:00	Manchester City v Real MadridBeckham v Alexander	Over 5.5 61% likely	6	5	Miss	6/7
11:00	Atletico Madrid v LiverpoolCezar v VanGogh	Over 5.5 73% likely	7	9	Hit	5/7
10:50	Spain v FranceLeonardo v Maverick	Over 6.5 62% likely	7	10	Hit	5/7
10:50	Germany v ArgentinaFlash v Gabriel	Over 4.5 72% likely	5	4	Miss	5/7
10:45	Manchester City v Atletico MadridBeckham v Cezar	Over 5.5 68% likely	6	10	Hit	5/7
10:45	Barcelona v Real MadridWilliam v Alexander	Over 4.5 72% likely	5	3	Miss	4/7
10:35	Germany v FranceFlash v Maverick	Over 5.5 73% likely	7	11	Hit	5/7
10:35	Argentina v HollandGabriel v Bruno	Over 5.5 66% likely	6	6	Hit	7/7
10:30	Manchester City v BarcelonaBeckham v William	Over 4.5 72% likely	5	2	Miss	3/7
10:30	Liverpool v Real MadridVanGogh v Alexander	Over 5.5 66% likely	6	7	Hit	6/7
10:20	Manchester Utd. v ArsenalFlash v Leonardo	Over 4.5 71% likely	5	3	Miss	4/7
10:20	Tottenham v Aston VillaMaverick v Bruno	Over 6.5 67% likely	7	9	Hit	6/7
10:15	Liverpool v BarcelonaVanGogh v William	Over 5.5 60% likely	6	7	Hit	6/7
10:15	Real Madrid v Atletico MadridAlexander v Cezar	Over 5.5 67% likely	6	10	Hit	5/7
10:05	Chelsea v ArsenalGabriel v Leonardo	Over 4.5 76% likely	6	5	Hit	6/7
10:05	Manchester Utd. v Aston VillaFlash v Bruno	Over 4.5 75% likely	6	5	Hit	6/7
10:00	Germany v EnglandVanGogh v Beckham	Over 5.5 67% likely	6	8	Hit	6/7
10:00	Argentina v HollandWilliam v Cezar	Over 5.5 61% likely	6	7	Hit	6/7
09:50	Aston Villa v ArsenalBruno v Leonardo	Over 5.5 61% likely	6	2	Miss	3/7
09:50	Chelsea v TottenhamGabriel v Maverick	Over 6.5 64% likely	7	5	Miss	5/7
09:45	Spain v EnglandAlexander v Beckham	Over 5.5 60% likely	6	6	Hit	7/7
09:45	Germany v HollandVanGogh v Cezar	Over 5.5 73% likely	7	8	Hit	6/7
09:35	Tottenham v ArsenalMaverick v Leonardo	Over 6.5 61% likely	7	6	Miss	6/7
09:35	Chelsea v Manchester Utd.Gabriel v Flash	Over 4.5 71% likely	5	4	Miss	5/7
09:30	Holland v EnglandCezar v Beckham	Over 5.5 67% likely	6	5	Miss	5/7
09:30	Spain v ArgentinaAlexander v William	Over 4.5 71% likely	5	6	Hit	7/7
09:20	Tottenham v Manchester Utd.Maverick v Flash	Over 5.5 72% likely	7	8	Hit	6/7
09:20	Aston Villa v ChelseaBruno v Gabriel	Over 5.5 64% likely	6	4	Miss	5/7
09:15	Argentina v EnglandWilliam v Beckham	Over 4.5 72% likely	5	5	Hit	6/7
09:15	Spain v GermanyAlexander v VanGogh	Over 5.5 66% likely	6	11	Hit	4/7
09:05	Arsenal v Manchester Utd.Leonardo v Flash	Over 4.5 70% likely	5	2	Miss	3/7
09:05	Aston Villa v TottenhamBruno v Maverick	Over 6.5 65% likely	7	4	Miss	4/7
09:00	Argentina v GermanyWilliam v VanGogh	Over 5.5 60% likely	6	5	Miss	6/7
09:00	Holland v SpainCezar v Alexander	Over 5.5 66% likely	6	6	Hit	6/7
04:00	Denmark v NorwayOdin v Eric	Over 3.5 70% likely	4	2	Miss	4/7
04:00	Argentina v SpainCleo v Eduardo	Over 3.5 70% likely	4	4	Hit	6/7
03:50	Barcelona v Manchester CityDexter v Kaizen	Over 4.5 71% likely	5	4	Miss	5/7
03:50	Real Madrid v LiverpoolFelix v Splinter	Over 4.5 67% likely	5	4	Miss	6/7
03:45	Spain v NorwayEduardo v Eric	Over 3.5 66% likely	4	2	Miss	5/7
03:45	Argentina v HollandCleo v Gael	Over 4.5 71% likely	5	6	Hit	7/7
03:35	Bayern M. v Manchester CitySebastian v Kaizen	Over 5.5 74% likely	7	6	Hit	6/7
03:35	Real Madrid v BarcelonaFelix v Dexter	Over 3.5 73% likely	4	3	Miss	5/7
03:30	Spain v HollandEduardo v Gael	Over 4.5 62% likely	5	4	Miss	6/7

line we called correctly line we got wrong

We publish a probability for every line on every match — 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 and 8.5 — and for each one we say which side is more likely. “Every line” counts how many of them went the way we said. Half of them is what guessing looks like. The main line is over 5.5, because that is the one this league is usually priced at. Calls are a rougher measure than calibration — the method page has the reliability curve, which is the number that actually matters.